Nachfolgemonitor 2026: what really happens after a takeover

How is a business doing two years after someone new has taken over? In Germany there are surprisingly few reliable answers to that question. The Nachfolgemonitor 2026 is one of them. It analyses real, completed takeovers and compares revenue, profit and credit rating before and after the change. In short: two in three businesses make more revenue after the takeover. Profit after depreciation falls at first in just over half of them. The reason is usually good news.

Key points at a glance

• 67.5 percent of businesses taken over make more revenue two years after the takeover than two years before it.
• Earnings before depreciation (EBITDA) rise in 52.9 percent of cases. Earnings after depreciation (EBIT) fall in 54.1 percent, mainly because successors invest.
• Among businesses with a weak credit rating, the rating improves after the takeover in just over seven in ten cases.
• Since 2018, 70 to 77 percent of the financing has gone into the purchase price. That leaves little room for investment.
• Only 18.9 percent of buyers are women. The share has never been this low since the survey began.

Where the figures come from

The Nachfolgemonitor has been published every year since 2019. It is produced by the KompetenzCentrum für Entrepreneurship & Mittelstand (KCE) at FOM University of Applied Sciences, in cooperation with the Association of German Guarantee Banks (VDB) and Creditreform. It analyses takeovers supported by guarantee banks, supplemented with financial and credit data from Creditreform. Data on how businesses develop after the takeover is available for 1,553 companies handed over between 2014 and 2022.

That is an important difference from the KfW succession monitoring. KfW asks owners what they plan to do. The Nachfolgemonitor looks at takeovers that actually happened. One limitation applies: takeovers without a guarantee bank are not included. So the figures show how financed takeovers fare.

Revenue: two in three businesses grow

The monitor compares revenue two years after the takeover with revenue two years before it. It is higher in 67.5 percent of businesses and lower in 32.5 percent. The year before, the split was almost the same.

The cohorts are revealing. Those who took over in 2020, in the middle of the pandemic, achieved the strongest growth on average. The 2022 cohort came in lower with a factor of 1.13. It started straight into the energy crisis, the interest rate turnaround and high inflation.

Part of the growth is inflation. Higher prices lift revenue without more being sold. The authors point this out themselves. If you are assessing a business, it is worth asking about orders, volumes and customers as well.

Profit: why EBIT often falls after a takeover

At first glance this does not add up. More revenue, yet lower profit in just over half of cases. The explanation lies in the difference between EBITDA and EBIT. EBITDA shows what day-to-day business earns. EBIT has depreciation already deducted.

And depreciation rises significantly after a takeover. Many businesses only invested in the bare essentials in the years before the handover. New owners catch up, with new machinery, vehicles, IT or work on the building. These investments are depreciated over several years and push EBIT down. In most cases, day-to-day business runs as well as or better than before.

Credit rating: weak businesses often turn around

Creditreform compared credit ratings two years before and two years after the handover (n = 2,307). For anyone taking over a business in a difficult position, the result is encouraging. Of the businesses with a weak rating, 57.7 percent moved up to “adequate” and a further 12.7 percent even to “satisfactory”. Even among those with an insufficient rating, more than half ended up at least at “adequate” afterwards.

That is no guarantee. Almost a third of businesses in the lower classes stay there after the change. And businesses with a very good rating often slip a notch, usually to “good”. That fits the picture above, because the purchase price and investment use up headroom at first.

Purchase price: three quarters of the financing

A takeover costs more than the purchase price. Working capital, investment and sometimes property come on top. Even so, most of the money goes into the purchase price. Since 2018 its share of the financing has been between 70 and 77 percent every year, and 77 percent on average for corporations. In transport and wholesale it is over 80 percent, in hospitality under 50 percent, because property and fittings account for a lot there.

According to the authors, succession financing fails in practice mainly for two reasons: price expectations that cannot be financed, and banks' higher equity requirements. If you stretch the price to the limit, there is no money left for the investment the business needs. With the financing calculator you can run the numbers on a takeover in advance.

Who takes over today

Successors have a median age of 38, with the middle half between 33 and 45. Those handing over have a median age of 64. Just over 81 percent take over alone; teams are the exception. Only in the information sector are almost four in ten takeovers done by teams.

The share of women fell to 18.9 percent in 2025. That is the lowest figure since the survey began; in previous years it was around 21 percent. In Hesse, the focus of this year's special analysis, it was only 13.3 percent. Success is not the reason. Businesses taken over by women in 2022 grew more on average (factor 1.29) than those taken over by men (1.14).

What this means for successors

• Do not just finance the purchase price. Build the budget for post-takeover investment into the plan from the start. The data shows it almost always comes.
• Look closely at the investment backlog when buying. An ageing machine park belongs in the price negotiation.
• Treat revenue growth before the handover with caution. Part of it may be inflation. Ask about orders, volumes and customers.
• Expect weaker EBIT in the first few years and discuss it with your bank beforehand.
• Do not be put off straight away by a weak credit rating. Many of these businesses turn around under new leadership. But find out why it is weak.

What this means for owners

• Postponed investment ends up in the purchase price. If you name the backlog openly or tackle it in good time, you negotiate from a stronger position.
• Keep the business stable until the handover. The businesses handed over held their profit steady on average in the three years before, now for the sixth year in a row. That makes them financeable.
• Work the price backwards. It has to be payable from cash flow and leave room for investment. How that works is explained in What is a small business worth?.
• Build a second management layer. According to the study, businesses with just under €2 million in revenue and around 20 employees are in particularly high demand because they depend less on the owner. Just over half of the jobs secured through succession are in businesses with 10 to 49 employees.
• Approach women specifically in your search. The study cites as one reason for the low share that the search for a successor often unconsciously favours men.

Our take

The monitor confirms what we hear in conversations with both sides. Buying the business is not the end of it. The first two years are building work, with investment, new customers and a team that first has to trust the new person. If you plan for that from the start, you begin with a business that grows in two out of three cases. For someone who has already built a startup, that is a pretty good starting point.

Thinking about taking over a business? In the Nachfounder programme we plan the purchase price and investment together from the start. Thinking about your own succession? The succession check gives you a first assessment in a few minutes.